Japan’s rice market, once a symbol of self-sufficiency and national pride, has spiralled into crisis. The price of a 60kg sack of rice has soared from just under ¥20,000 to as much as ¥50,000 in the past year, marking an increase of over 150%.
At the centre of the storm is former farm minister Taku Eto, whose resignation this week followed public uproar over his comment about receiving “plenty” of rice as gifts.
Eto said he never had to buy rice because he received plenty of it as gifts.
The comment, which the minister said was meant as a joke, received fierce criticism.
His departure highlights the political fallout of a deeper structural problem in Japan’s agricultural policy and cost-of-living crisis.
Rice demand misjudged, reserves tapped
Supermarkets are now rationing rice sales, and emergency reserves — typically used during natural disasters — have been released to stabilise supply.
The government’s miscalculation of rice demand by nearly 500,000 tonnes is now being blamed for the shortfall. Climate-induced poor harvests have only worsened the shortage.
Tourism recovery, increased dining out, and lower rice prices relative to other staples were not fully factored into the Ministry of Agriculture’s 2023 and 2024 demand forecasts.
Though Japan ended its direct control over rice output in 1995, the government has continued to issue guidance to farmers.
These projections, used to determine how much rice should be grown, failed to anticipate the post-pandemic demand surge.
Policy reversals fuel confusion
In previous years, the same ministry had encouraged farmers to reduce rice cultivation in favour of crops like soybeans and wheat.
At the time, declining rice consumption supported the shift. But with current demand far exceeding expectations, the policy is being questioned as shortsighted.
While this reflects long-standing grievances about overregulation and subsidies, others worry that abandoning support could harm rural communities dependent on agriculture.
Kosuke Kasahara, a 59-year-old farmer, argues that rice farming sustains more than just income.
It keeps towns alive. With elderly farmers comprising a large portion of the workforce, many are ill-prepared to respond to rapidly changing directives and volatile market shifts.
Imports restart as political pressure grows
To cushion the impact, Japan has resumed rice imports from South Korea for the first time in 25 years and is negotiating new deals with US producers.
These emergency steps are politically sensitive, especially as a national election approaches.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s minority government now faces criticism from both rural and urban voters — the former aggrieved by years of low profitability, and the latter squeezed by spiralling food costs.
Public trust is also on the line. The remark from Eto, though intended in jest, struck a nerve amid the steepest inflation in decades.
For families already cutting back on essentials, such comments underscored a perceived disconnect between leadership and lived experience.
Historical echoes and current risks
The crisis draws parallels with the 1918 rice riots, which helped bring down a government.
While Japan’s modern economy is more diversified, the symbolic power of rice remains undiminished.
It is not only a dietary staple but a cultural anchor — one whose scarcity can trigger wide-scale unrest.
Unless corrective measures are implemented swiftly — including better forecasting, clear communication, and support for both producers and consumers — the fallout may deepen.
The situation reflects broader structural tensions in Japan’s economy, especially in food security, rural sustainability, and cost management under inflationary pressure.
With national identity, trust in governance, and food affordability at stake, the humble grain has again taken centre stage in Japanese politics.
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